As The Dow Plummets, Will Crime Rates Rise?

Now that we are officially in the midst of a recession, commentators have begun to speculate how the economic downturn could affect crime rates. 

Some claim there is no link between recessions and increased crime.  People in this camp rely on U.S. Justice Department statistics that show crime flourished during the 1920’s, 1950’s and 1960’s-when the economy was also booming.  But wouldn’t one expect that during hard times, people who are suffering would steal to compensate for their lack of income?  While there have been reports of increased incidents of shoplifting during recessions, there may be counteractive forces at work which balance the overall property crime rate.  For instance, during economic downturns, people often move in with relatives and stay home more, both of which tend to have a stabilizing effect.    

Others have found a strong link between economic downturns and crime waves.  Those who believe this theory claim that statistics can be skewed by a number of forces.  For example, in the 1990s, when Michigan’s Ecorse Police Department retrieved dead human bodies from the Detroit River and classified them as “floating bodies,” the crimes weren’t recorded in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report since that crime category wasn’t recognized.  Additionally, crime rates during the Depression may have been distorted by Federal Government programs such as the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC).  In the 1930’s, the CCC took over 500,000 unemployed young men (who pose the greatest risk of committing crimes) from cities and moved them to isolated work camps where they lacked the opportunity to commit crimes.  Without these measures, would there have been a rise in crime during the Depression?  Who knows. . . .   

While the relationship between recessions and violent and property crime is debatable, it makes sense that certain crimes do in fact rise in tandem with hard economic times.  Specifically, domestic violence, alcohol-fueled crimes, and elder abuse have reportedly been increasing as families struggle with the stress of the current recession. 

What can be done?  While state budgets may be strapped, it may be cost-efficient to implement educational programs in order to prevent an increase in domestic crimes.  Another preventative measure:  don’t cut police department budgets!  If there aren’t sufficient officers in place, criminals will have more opportunities to offend.  And if the effects of decreased security resources illustrated by the recent holiday shopping tragedies are any indication, we cannot afford to under-fund law enforcement.

Stay tuned: LegalMatch is currently mining case detail related to criminal offenses since the Dow Collapsed.  Once we have a sufficient sample of this data we will advise if we see a correlation between the Dow and Crime.